“Among all variables, the opponent’s intent is the most important,” Aegor said. “Why don’t we start by figuring out why Prince Doran Martell would do such a thankless thing… After you pulled the Northern army out of the battlefield, did the Dornish army withdraw as well, as agreed?”

“As far as I know, yes.”

Aegor rested his chin on his hand, thought for a moment, then looked up again. “I don’t know Doran Martell personally, but I’ve had some contact with his younger brother. Judging from Oberyn’s attitude when speaking about him, this de facto ruler of Dorne is no fool. There must be a reason for his actions. Let’s review the battle situation and try to deduce Prince Doran’s true intentions.”

“Alright.” Robb had been troubled by this very issue for the past month, but hadn’t thought of approaching it from this angle. Now, intrigued by Aegor’s method of analysis, he decided to follow along and see where it led. “When King Stannis marched south, he sent a summons to Dorne, but received no reply at the time. It wasn’t until the critical moment—when the Crownlands forces and the royal army were closing in and surrounding Storm’s End—that the Dornish appeared from the south… Ignoring the King’s direct orders, they brought their troops up the flank of the royal army with clear hostility but without a declaration of war, making it impossible for Stannis to concentrate on the siege. Meanwhile, the Northern army was blocking the Riverlands reinforcements to the west of Storm’s End. After some fighting, we reached a stalemate—and that’s when I received Prince Doran’s letter.”

Robb paused, took a sip of water, and continued. “It’s clear the Dornish didn’t want King Stannis to recapture Storm’s End from the rebels. But what’s puzzling is that they didn’t follow Aegon Targaryen’s orders either. After the Northern army withdrew and the King pulled back from Storm’s End, the Golden Company and the mercenaries they hired or newly formed launched an offensive toward King’s Landing. Yet at that key moment, the Dornish army returned home. With the Riverlands forces also severely weakened and unable to assist, Aegon’s attempt to expand his foothold collapsed. Aside from Storm’s End and a few southern castles and villages, the King still holds most of the Stormlands and all of the Crownlands.”

…

Even before he finished speaking, Robb already realized the benefit of Aegor’s approach. By reviewing the entire Storm’s End campaign from an outsider’s perspective, he quickly spotted blind spots he had previously overlooked. “The Riverlands still have some strength left, but the Tyrells, having suffered repeated defeats, lack the prestige to fully wield it. The Westerlands are still watching from the sidelines, but since the Kingslayer killed the Mad King, they’ll never serve under the true dragon’s banner again. And Dorne hasn’t truly committed to war. If this continues without reinforcements, whether that Aegon Targaryen is real or not, he has no chance of winning.”

“Exactly. See? We’ve already reached our first consensus: the rebels have no chance of victory,” Aegor nodded. “And under those circumstances, Dorne not only got involved, but did so without fully committing… So what do they want?”

“I’m wondering the same thing.”

“No point speculating aimlessly. Let’s keep using the same approach. Let’s not overthink it—just look at what Dorne actually gained from this war.” Aegor sat up straighter, resting his arms on the desk that once belonged to Eddard Stark. “Without losing a single man, just by marching their army around the Stormlands, they forced the battle-hardened King to abandon the siege of his childhood home. With a single letter, a bit of ink, they got the strongest fighting force in the Seven Kingdoms—the Northern army—to return home. The one who designed this plan is clearly brilliant. But what did Dorne gain from all this?”

“What did they gain…” Robb didn’t hide his confusion. He hesitated, then said, “It seems… they didn’t gain anything?”

“It’s not just ‘seems.’ They gained nothing. Worse, they had to pay for military upkeep. Only a fool would do something that hurts others and gains nothing. And we ruled out the possibility of Prince Doran being a fool from the very beginning.” Aegor paused a few seconds, combing through his fragmented memories of what now felt like a former life. He had a rough theory in mind, and now was the moment to voice it. “Once we eliminate all other possibilities, what remains must be the truth. The Martells didn’t get involved in this war to gain something, but to avoid losing something.”

Losing what? Robb was more confused than before. He thought about it for a moment, then steeled himself. Since he’d already asked for advice, he might as well drop the noble posture of the Warden of the North and play the role of a humble student seeking guidance. “It’s true that Dorne supported House Targaryen during the Usurper’s Rebellion, but that was long ago. King Stannis is often criticized for being overly rigid and strict, but he’s not so paranoid that he’d dig up old grievances from years past just to punish the Martells after securing the Iron Throne. What exactly are they afraid of losing?”

“Environment,” Aegor replied, giving a single word. “To be precise—a chaotic environment. Dorne’s overall strength is on the lower end among the Seven Kingdoms. Under normal circumstances, they don’t have the power to sway the fate of Westeros. If they hadn’t intervened, King Stannis would’ve taken Storm’s End, driven out or destroyed the Golden Company, then—with four kingdoms under his command—forced the Tyrells to submit. He might even have reshaped the entire political landscape, returning Westeros to the unified state it held under King Robert. Once the King secures the Iron Throne, Dorne would have no choice but to kneel. The Martells had motive. They didn’t want the realm to return to normalcy.”

“Aegon Targaryen is Prince Doran’s nephew. If they support him and he wins, Dorne is guaranteed favorable treatment once he takes the Iron Throne… What could be more profitable than putting your own kin on the throne?”

“What’s more profitable than putting your own nephew on the throne? Good question,” Aegor said. “What do you think?”

…

“The Martells want the crown for themselves?” Robb guessed after several seconds of silence. “But the current Martell generation’s Targaryen blood is so diluted it’s practically nonexistent. Their line of succession is a mess. No matter which kingdom’s laws you follow, it would never be the Martells’ turn to sit the Iron Throne.”

“The Martells themselves can’t claim the Iron Throne. But what if one of them… married the last Targaryen?”

“The last Targaryen?” Robb’s expression shifted. Of the two living Targaryens, only one was a woman—and the one whose identity was most widely accepted. He immediately understood what Aegor meant. “So that’s it. They want to keep Westeros in chaos, weakening potential rivals… and wait for Daenerys Targaryen to return across the Narrow Sea and marry into their family, gaining the right to claim the Iron Throne through marriage.”

As soon as that guess was spoken, all of Robb’s prior confusion vanished. He suddenly saw things clearly. “No wonder. Dorne never truly committed to the war. They even refused to publicly acknowledge Aegon Targaryen’s claim. Yet they sent troops to prevent Stannis from retaking Storm’s End and wrote to me, asking for an agreement. They’re trying to destabilize Stannis’s claim while keeping their strength intact. Once a Martell marries Daenerys and they discredit Aegon’s identity, the Martells become the best-positioned house to take the Iron Throne.”

“That’s right. It’s the most reasonable explanation I can find.” Drawing such conclusions from scattered clues required a frightening capacity for intuitive reasoning. Aegor admitted he didn’t have that kind of mind. But with knowledge of the plot and characters and a clear understanding of the ending, it was much easier to work backward and fake the appearance of a deduction.

The confusion had left Robb’s face, replaced by astonishment. “I must inform King Stannis of this suspicion. We absolutely can’t let Dorne profit so easily.”

“It’s a natural reaction, wanting to stop Dorne from benefiting. But what exactly do you intend to do? And how would you even explain to the King your basis for guessing Prince Doran’s true motives? Even if he believes you, what can he do? Declare war on Dorne?”

“This…” Robb fell silent, his astonishment replaced by inner conflict. Before, he had only heard about Aegor’s cunning. Now that he had witnessed it firsthand, there was no doubt. He looked at Aegor again, eyes probing. “So even if I uncover the Martells’ true scheme, there’s nothing I can do?”

“I can’t give you a definitive answer. That depends on you.” Aegor shrugged. Having made his point, he now had to steer things toward a direction favorable to himself. “Prince Martell’s actions already speak for themselves. I have no doubt that if the North marches south again, Dorne will do the same. It’s true they want to preserve their strength, but if pushed, they won’t hesitate to join the war. So what to do next depends on your answers to the following questions.”

He paused. Robb noticed and poured him a cup of water. Aegor accepted it without hesitation. “If both the North and Dorne return to the battlefield, both sides will receive reinforcements. Will that increase or reduce the King’s advantage? In other words: are you confident you can reassemble an army stronger than Dorne’s? If so, how will you protect the North from outside threats while you’re gone? The new Lord of the Iron Islands and the White Walkers Beyond the Wall aren’t enemies to be taken lightly.”

Two is twice as much as one. But three is only 1.5 times more than two… It’s simple math: when both sides receive reinforcements, the stronger side’s advantage doesn’t necessarily increase.

Of course, war is never as simple as math.

Robb didn’t respond immediately. He lowered his head and began to think.

…

Those who live in harsh lands often grow tougher. That’s one reason why Northern soldiers are feared throughout the Seven Kingdoms. But Dorne isn’t an easy land either. Though Robb had never been there, he’d heard enough to imagine it: mountainous, rocky, arid, and harsh—none of those were flattering terms. It was a place the Targaryens, even with dragons, had to conquer by marriage. Even the North did not dare underestimate it.

To Aegor’s first question, Robb’s answer was: no.

No one could say with certainty how Dorne’s strength compared to the North’s—only a real battle would tell. But the war’s main battleground was the Stormlands, practically Dorne’s backyard and thousands of miles from the North. And the North had already fought grueling campaigns against the Westerlands and Riverlands.

The Reach was enormous. And while the opposition wasn’t weak either, the struggle between these two titans for the throne would not be decided quickly. To return to the war and drag Dorne into it as winter approached would only balance the scales again. Aside from increasing mutual attrition, it held little real benefit.

Moreover, Robb had already experienced what it was like to fight far from home and nearly lose his stronghold. He wasn’t eager to repeat it.

The answer was obvious, but Robb hated the feeling of being forced to act according to the enemy’s will. “Is there no way to break the stalemate?”

“There is. One side must achieve a decisive victory—for example, if King Stannis captures or kills Aegon Targaryen. Or vice versa. Then the war ends quickly. Otherwise, the only other way is to make the Lannisters switch sides again,” Aegor replied immediately. “As for breaking Doran Martell’s plan to watch the tigers fight from the mountaintop, that’s very hard. The nature of an open scheme is that it isn’t afraid of being exposed. Even if Prince Doran publicly announced his plans to both King Stannis and Aegon, they’d still have no choice but to fight each other to the death.”

Stannis’s leadership was steady and cautious. He was skilled at judging people. Even in defeat, he likely wouldn’t collapse. And that so-called Aegon Targaryen was guarded tightly by the Golden Company. He had hardly appeared publicly since landing in Westeros. Targeting these two figures to end the war was difficult. As for getting the Lannisters to switch sides again, Robb—who had just returned home with carts full of Westerlands gold—wouldn’t even dare dream of it.

Aegor had already laid out the options and stakes through a series of leading questions. Robb no longer needed further advice.

He gritted his teeth and slammed the table in frustration. “Then I’ll have to continue declaring my support for King Stannis to keep the Riverlands and the Vale appeased. But I won’t send any troops. The North will rest, recover, and wait for the right time to re-enter the war.”

“Good idea. And you already have the perfect excuse,” Aegor said with a smile. “Once you return to the North, go straight to the Wall to inspect the situation. Then, announce that the threat from the army of the dead is too severe to ignore. So you decide to hold the North, and won’t send forces south until the wight threat is resolved.”

Robb raised his eyebrows. “That is a good excuse…”

“Not only that. I’d guess that in Prince Doran’s secret letter, he only asked you to withdraw your army from the battlefield. He never said the North must withdraw from the war, right?”

“He didn’t.”

“Then things are even simpler. Let’s counter an open scheme with an open scheme. Stay home, ride out the winter, rebuild your strength, and prepare for Daenerys’s return. Meanwhile, to appease the Vale and Riverlands and show loyalty to the King, don’t just sit idle. Keep the entire North in motion. Openly send supplies and every other kind of support you can to your allies. Dorne and the Riverlands will likely do the same for the rebels backed by the Golden Company… but those three factions have different goals and will never be as united as the four northern regions, who’ve long stood together.”

(To be continued.)

***

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